AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs PHI
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, August 9, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 28 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TOR STARTER
Shane Bieber
SHAKY- 3.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 88
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
PHI STARTER
Jesús Luzardo
GOOD- 8.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 113
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Jesús Luzardo grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Shane Bieber grades poor (Pitching+ 88)
TOR LINEUP
1Brett Bateman (L)hit 55% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 63% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
3Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
4Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 51% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
5Ernie Clement (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
19%
SCORES A RUN
6Andrés Giménez (L)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
19%
SCORES A RUN
7Myles Straw (R)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
20%
SCORES A RUN
8Josh Smith (L)hit 43% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
18%
2+ BASES
8%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
9Davis Schneider (R)hit 32% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
32%
1+ HIT
5%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
16%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
14%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
PHI LINEUP
1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 71% · HR 43%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
43%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
43%
4+ BASES
52%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
65%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 73% · HR 38%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
38%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
45%
3+ BASES
40%
4+ BASES
51%
RBI
27%
2+ RBIs
60%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 69% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 60% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 65% · HR 22%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
8Alec Bohm (R)hit 55% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Justin Crawford (L)hit 57% · HR 7%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
81%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
74%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
67%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
18%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore TOR by 3.37 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 2.61, PHI 5.98
- Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Shane Bieber
TOR SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
58%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 26% to reach 5+ against PHI
Jesús Luzardo
PHI SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
89%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
51%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
75%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
43%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
45%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 43% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Bieber
Luis Arraez
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Shane Bieber
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Bieber
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Shane Bieber
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Brett Bateman
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Myles Straw
TOR · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Josh Smith
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
45%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
19%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Davis Schneider
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
33%
Hits
2+ hits
5%
Total Bases
2+ bases
17%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 33% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.