AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGTB vs SEA
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 9, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Yandy Díaz in this spot
BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 76 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Tampa Bay vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TB STARTER
Ian Seymour
AVERAGE- 6.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 101
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
SEA STARTER
Emerson Hancock
AVERAGE- 4.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 102
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Emerson Hancock grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 101)
TB LINEUP
Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.
SEA LINEUP
1Taylor Ward (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
2Cole Young (L)hit 55% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
3Randy Arozarena (R)hit 57% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Dominic Canzone (L)hit 57% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 60% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Cal Raleigh (S)hit 40% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
40%
1+ HIT
7%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
8Weston Wilson (R)hit 43% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Colt Emerson (L)hit 42% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
42%
1+ HIT
8%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
26%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
27%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore SEA by 0.86 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 4.14, SEA 3.29
- Ian Seymour (TB) vs Emerson Hancock (SEA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ian Seymour
TB SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
23%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against SEA
Emerson Hancock
SEA SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ian Seymour
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ian Seymour
Liam Hicks
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ bases — 36% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Ian Seymour
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ian Seymour
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Ian Seymour
Taylor Ward
SEA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ian Seymour
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ian Seymour
Weston Wilson
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
45%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ian Seymour
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
3%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
17%
Total Bases
3+ bases
7%
Total Bases
4+ bases
4%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
43%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ian Seymour
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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