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NEW YORKNYM
51-67 · +5 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
58-61 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sean Manaea
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.33
IP
97.2
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS3.39 ERA · 21.4% K · 9.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
32%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeup
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.02
IP
56.0
K/9
10.0
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.67 ERA · 30.1% K · 4.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jared Jones · Under 15.5 <16 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

-169 DraftKings63% book69% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM PIT

Game Markets

NYM @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

41%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore NYM by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.05, PIT 4.74
  • Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Jared Jones (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

72%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against PIT
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SEAN MANAEA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.833
vs Left-handedK%29.5%OPS-against.719
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.773K%23.6%

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.629
vs Left-handedK%29.7%OPS-against.710
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%23.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs SEAN MANAEA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 3·PIT 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYM
NYM 57 · PIT 51 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08PIT 9-0 · Blowout
2026-08-07NYM 6-4
2026-03-29PIT 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM46¢ · 46%
PIT58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→9→10.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to CF
Humidity54%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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