BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
58-60 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 2:10 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
73-44 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
84°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Connor Prielipp
LHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.75
IP
77.2
K/9
9.4
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS3.96 ERA · 25.2% K · 8.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
18%
13%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinker
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.63
IP
127.0
K/9
13.8
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
0.73
L5 STARTS2.25 ERA · 47.1% K · 1.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jacob Misiorowski · Over 8.5 9+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-113 FanDuel53% book66% +13pp

Connor Prielipp · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

contact lineup limits the K ceiling

-122 FanDuel55% book62% +7pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 68%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIN MIL

Game Markets

MIN @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

60%

Game Total

Over 8.5

30%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

49%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

20%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore MIN by 1.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 2.68, MIL 4.20
  • Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against MIL
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

66%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.8 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against MIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CONNOR PRIELIPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.5%OPS-against.692
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.773
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.751K%21.4%

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.9%OPS-against.562
vs Left-handedK%47.7%OPS-against.347
MIN vs LHP (team)OPS.682K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs CONNOR PRIELIPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 1·MIL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 2·MIL 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%MIL
MIN 40 · MIL 45 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08MIL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-07MIN 8-6
2026-05-17MIN 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN33¢ · 33%
MIL71¢ · 71%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→10.5→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 9mph out to CF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity61%
Rain40%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO