BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAA
45-72 · +5 AL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
59-59 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
87°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Grayson Rodriguez
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
7.24
IP
51.0
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.59
L5 STARTS6.45 ERA · 16.2% K · 6.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
20%
14%
12%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSlider
Ryan Gusto
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
4.80
IP
45.0
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS4.45 ERA · 20.8% K · 3.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
19%
14%
13%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAA MIA

Game Markets

LAA @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

38%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.21 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.49, MIA 4.72
  • Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GR

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against MIA
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against LAA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.824
vs Left-handedK%14.3%OPS-against.961
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.9%

RYAN GUSTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.596
vs Left-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.825
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.685K%25.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAA BATTERS vs RYAN GUSTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAA 1·MIA 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAA 1·MIA 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%LAA
LAA 13 · MIA 10 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08MIA 7-0 · Blowout
2026-08-07LAA 4-3 · One-run game
2025-05-25MIA 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAA44¢ · 44%
MIA60¢ · 60%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
LAA -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→7.5→6.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAA OFFENSE

.261L15 team wOBA
-55 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIA OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 10mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity71%
Rain4%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO