AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

HOU vs SD

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres

Sunday, August 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU

0·0

SAN DIEGOSD

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.8

CV78.2

SL86

FB94

FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

SD Over 4.5 runs

40%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 11-for-39 (.282) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 13mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

HOU STARTER

Cristian Javier

SHAKY

3.6
PROJECTED Ks: 95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 51% · 28% whiffSweeper · 22% · 25% whiffChangeup · 16% · 29% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Randy Vásquez

AVERAGE

2.3
PROJECTED Ks: 96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 20% whiffCutter · 24% · 20% whiffSinker · 14% · 13% whiff

Randy Vásquez grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Cristian Javier grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

HOU LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

SD LINEUP

1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 62% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty France (R)hit 62% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 58% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Luis Rengifo (S)hit 55% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Gavin Sheets (L)hit 51% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Freddy Fermin (R)hit 44% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

HOU SD

Game Markets

HOU @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

SD -1.5

29%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore SD by 0.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: HOU 4.81, SD 4.04
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs Randy Vásquez (SD)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. SD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

35%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
27% to reach 5+ against SD

Randy Vásquez

SD SP · vs. HOU

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.3 strikeouts
9% to reach 5+ against HOU

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Cristian Javier

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Gavin Sheets

SD · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Luis Rengifo

SD · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing Cristian Javier

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Cristian Javier

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.