DETROITDET
57-60 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 7-3 L10
@SUN 4:05 PM ETSF HOME PARK
49-68 · +4 NL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
80°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Troy Melton
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
1.58
IP
74.0
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS0.92 ERA · 27.1% K · 11% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
19%
19%
9%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderCutterSplit-FingerSinker
Logan Webb
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.74
IP
125.0
K/9
7.3
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS4.04 ERA · 18% K · 5.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
24%
19%
13%
12%
SinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballCutter
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET SF

Game Markets

DET @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

SF -1.5

32%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.62 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 3.94, SF 3.69
  • Troy Melton (DET) vs Logan Webb (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TM

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against SF
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

TROY MELTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.432
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.624
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%20.1%

LOGAN WEBB SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.577
vs Left-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.657
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%22.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs TROY MELTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs LOGAN WEBB

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 1·SF 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 1·SF 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SF
DET 15 · SF 16 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08DET 8-0 · Blowout
2026-08-08SF 5-2
2025-05-28DET 4-3 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
DET54¢ · 54%
SF50¢ · 50%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
DET -1.5 ·
SF +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.584.57.54.57.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.365L15 team wOBA
+49 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SF OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT80° · 9mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity46%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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