BETFLYAISIGN IN
COLORADOCOL
46-71 · +5 NL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
58-59 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
92°F · 14mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Lorenzen
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
6.94
IP
107.2
K/9
6.7
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.85
L5 STARTS8.07 ERA · 12.3% K · 10.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
18%
14%
12%
9%
Changeup4-Seam FastballSinkerCutterCurveballSliderSweeper
Michael McGreevy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
3.59
IP
120.1
K/9
6.1
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS5.72 ERA · 19.1% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
21%
17%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterCurveballSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL STL

Game Markets

COL @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

66%

Run Line

STL -1.5

41%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore COL by 0.53 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.96, STL 5.49
  • Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs Michael McGreevy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Michael Lorenzen

COL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
  • 11% to reach 5+ against STL
MM

Michael McGreevy

STL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL LORENZEN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.802
vs Left-handedK%15.0%OPS-against.103
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.695K%21.4%

MICHAEL MCGREEVY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.706
vs Left-handedK%14.2%OPS-against.720
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.760K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs MICHAEL LORENZEN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs MICHAEL MCGREEVY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 1·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 1·STL 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
62%STL
COL 38 · STL 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08COL 8-6
2026-08-08STL 3-2 · One-run game
2025-08-13COL 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL42¢ · 42%
STL62¢ · 62%
Total 9.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9.5→8.5→11.5→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

STL OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 14mph out to CF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind14 mph out to CF
Humidity49%
Rain1%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO