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CLEVELANDCLE
58-60 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 2:10 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
60-56 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
85°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Joey Cantillo
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.87
IP
118.2
K/9
9.8
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.47
L5 STARTS4.86 ERA · 30.6% K · 8.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
25%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderCutter
Davis Martin
RHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
4.13
IP
122.0
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS8.21 ERA · 14.7% K · 6.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
18%
15%
14%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupSliderCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Joey Cantillo · Under 15.5 <16 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

-143 Caesars59% book74% +15pp

Davis Martin · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-137 DraftKings58% book66% +9pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE CWS

Game Markets

CLE @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

27%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.10 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 5.03, CWS 3.94
  • Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JC

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 78% to reach 5+ against CWS
DM

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JOEY CANTILLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.7%OPS-against.777
vs Left-handedK%16.3%OPS-against.708
CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.724K%23.7%

DAVIS MARTIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.688
vs Left-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.737
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.659K%22.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs JOEY CANTILLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs DAVIS MARTIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·CWS 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 5·CWS 6
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CLE 187 · CWS 141 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08CWS 6-3
2026-08-07CLE 8-2 · Blowout
2026-07-05CWS 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE52¢ · 52%
CWS52¢ · 52%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
CWS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7→4.5→8.5→4.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CWS OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 10mph out to CF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity66%
Rain22%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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