BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
56-61 · +4 AL EAST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 2:35 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
59-58 · +2 AL WEST · W4 · 4-6 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
97°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cade Povich
LHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
3.91
IP
25.1
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS4.06 ERA · 18.1% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
43%
23%
16%
9%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeup
Kumar Rocker
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.08
IP
108.0
K/9
8.2
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS5.08 ERA · 23.5% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
31%
14%
12%
SliderSinkerCutter4-Seam FastballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TEX

Game Markets

BAL @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

31%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore TEX by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.84, TEX 4.35
  • Cade Povich (BAL) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CP

Cade Povich

BAL SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against TEX
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CADE POVICH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.551
vs Left-handedK%13.2%OPS-against.117
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.708K%22.1%

KUMAR ROCKER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.587
vs Left-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.838
BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.706K%25.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs CADE POVICH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs KUMAR ROCKER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·TEX 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·TEX 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%BAL
BAL 58 · TEX 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08TEX 5-1
2026-08-08TEX 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-04-01BAL 8-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL46¢ · 46%
TEX58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→6.5→8.5→6.5→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TEX OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT97° · 8mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
97°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity37%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO