BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
70-47 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 8-2 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
66-51 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
90°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.67
IP
108.0
K/9
7.7
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS3.21 ERA · 19.1% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
Cam Schlittler
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
2.26
IP
139.2
K/9
11.0
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.95
L5 STARTS3.40 ERA · 35.4% K · 8.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
27%
20%
4-Seam FastballCutterSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 66%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL NYY

Game Markets

ATL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

58%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

47%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore ATL by 1.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.55, NYY 4.84
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

30%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.723
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.739
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%24.4%

CAM SCHLITTLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.4%OPS-against.552
vs Left-handedK%33.6%OPS-against.594
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.747K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs CAM SCHLITTLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·NYY 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 1·NYY 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%NYY
ATL 26 · NYY 44 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08NYY 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-07NYY 3-2 · One-run game
2026-03-13ATL 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL44¢ · 44%
NYY59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

NYY OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 10mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity50%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO