BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATH
46-71 · +4 AL WEST · W1 · 1-9 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
64-52 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 9-1 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
92°F · 13mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Ron Kulpa K+0.4%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
J.T. Ginn
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.49
IP
118.2
K/9
8.0
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS5.41 ERA · 23.3% K · 11.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
19%
19%
16%
12%
SinkerChangeupCutterSlider4-Seam Fastball
Erik Miller
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+115
ERA
2.50
IP
36.0
K/9
12.8
BB/9
5.8
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 33.3% K · 4.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
40%
SinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 56%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATH BOS

Game Markets

ATH @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

41%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore ATH by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.37, BOS 4.84
  • J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs Erik Miller (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JG

J.T. Ginn

ATH SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against BOS
EM

Erik Miller

BOS SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

49%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against ATH
WC

Willson Contreras

BOS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
CR

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
AM

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ bases — 44% against 40% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
AS

Anthony Seigler

BOS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
EW

Eli White

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
JR

Jake Rogers

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing J.T. Ginn
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

J.T. GINN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.3%OPS-against.504
vs Left-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.740
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.773K%21.5%

ERIK MILLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.9%OPS-against.642
vs Left-handedK%32.8%OPS-against.600
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.719K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs J.T. GINN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs ERIK MILLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 1·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 2·BOS 4
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
92%BOS
ATH 5 · BOS 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08ATH 7-3
2026-08-07BOS 13-1 · Blowout
2026-07-31BOS 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.267L15 team wOBA
-49 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.340L15 team wOBA
+24 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 13mph out to CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind13 mph out to CF
Humidity45%
Rain1%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
KULPA
Called K rate+0.4% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr252

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RED SOX 56%

Mean score sim 4.4–4.8 · projected total 9.2 runs · partial lineups — will refresh

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