BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
55-62 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 6:05 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
62-55 · +2 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
85°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Max Scherzer
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
7.92
IP
30.2
K/9
6.8
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.63
L5 STARTS7.42 ERA · 14.9% K · 11.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
23%
16%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Aaron Nola
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
5.55
IP
120.0
K/9
9.1
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.44
L5 STARTS4.62 ERA · 23.1% K · 10.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
21%
13%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Aaron Nola · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+105 Fanatics49% book63% +14pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR PHI

Game Markets

TOR @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

41%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore TOR by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 4.21, PHI 4.84
  • Max Scherzer (TOR) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MAX SCHERZER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.650
vs Left-handedK%12.0%OPS-against.103
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%22.9%

AARON NOLA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.5%OPS-against.791
vs Left-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.889
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.698K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs MAX SCHERZER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs AARON NOLA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 1·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 5·PHI 3
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%TOR
TOR 95 · PHI 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-07TOR 5-4 · One-run game
2026-06-10PHI 7-4
2026-06-09TOR 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR43¢ · 43%
PHI61¢ · 61%
Total 10
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→10→8.5→9.5→8.5→10last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 7mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity50%
Rain25%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO