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NEW YORKNYM
51-66 · +5 NL EAST · W4 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
57-61 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L4 · 2-8 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
87°F · 11mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Robert Stock
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.80
IP
5.0
K/9
7.2
BB/9
0.0
WHIP
0.60
L5 STARTS1.80 ERA · 22.2% K · 0% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Bubba Chandler
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.49
IP
110.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
5.0
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS4.21 ERA · 17.6% K · 12% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
18%
17%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerSweeperCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Bubba Chandler · Under 15.5 <16 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

-118 Caesars54% book63% +9pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM PIT

Game Markets

NYM @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

30%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore PIT by 0.71 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.00, PIT 4.29
  • Robert Stock (NYM) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RS

Robert Stock

NYM SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against PIT
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ROBERT STOCK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%0.0%OPS-against.000
vs Left-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.750
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.769K%23.7%

BUBBA CHANDLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.609
vs Left-handedK%19.2%OPS-against.767
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.685K%22.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs ROBERT STOCK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs BUBBA CHANDLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 3·PIT 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYM
NYM 57 · PIT 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-07NYM 6-4
2026-03-29PIT 4-3 · One-run game
2026-03-28NYM 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM45¢ · 45%
PIT59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PIT OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 11mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind11 mph out to CF
Humidity51%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO