BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAA
45-71 · +5 AL WEST · W2 · 3-7 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
58-59 · +3 NL EAST · L4 · 5-5 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
88°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Walbert Ureña
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
2.54
IP
99.1
K/9
8.6
BB/9
4.7
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS0.99 ERA · 23.6% K · 13.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
32%
20%
16%
ChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballSweeper
Sandy Alcantara
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.68
IP
156.2
K/9
6.9
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS2.45 ERA · 21.2% K · 6.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
22%
19%
14%
8%
SinkerChangeup4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Sandy Alcantara · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-111 FanDuel53% book73% +20pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAngels 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAA MIA

Game Markets

LAA @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAA to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

31%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

LAA projects to outscore MIA by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.51, MIA 4.01
  • Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WU

Walbert Ureña

LAA SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against MIA
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

99%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

81%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against LAA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WALBERT UREÑA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.3%OPS-against.571
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.620
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%20.9%

SANDY ALCANTARA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.691
vs Left-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.672
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%24.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs WALBERT UREÑA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAA BATTERS vs SANDY ALCANTARA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAA 1·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAA 1·MIA 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%LAA
LAA 13 · MIA 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-07LAA 4-3 · One-run game
2025-05-25MIA 3-0 · Pitchers duel
2025-05-25MIA 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAA43¢ · 43%
MIA61¢ · 61%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
LAA -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAA OFFENSE

.274L15 team wOBA
-42 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIA OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 10mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity70%
Rain3%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO