BETFLYAISIGN IN
COLORADOCOL
45-71 · +5 NL WEST · L4 · 3-7 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
58-58 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
90°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Freeland
LHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
6.81
IP
108.1
K/9
7.7
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.49
L5 STARTS5.79 ERA · 19.1% K · 3.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
22%
21%
15%
12%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterChangeupSweeperSinker
Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.97
IP
108.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.49
L5 STARTS3.91 ERA · 25.7% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Freeland · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-110 Fanatics52% book69% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL STL

Game Markets

COL @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

STL -1.5

41%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore COL by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.59, STL 5.09
  • Kyle Freeland (COL) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KF

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against STL
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE FREELAND SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.926
vs Left-handedK%20.2%OPS-against.751
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.689K%18.2%

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.805
vs Left-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.862
COL vs LHP (team)OPS.704K%25.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs KYLE FREELAND

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 0·STL 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 0·STL 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%STL
COL 37 · STL 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08STL 3-2 · One-run game
2025-08-13COL 6-5 · One-run game
2025-08-12COL 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL43¢ · 43%
STL61¢ · 61%
Total 9
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9→5.5→9→5.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

STL OFFENSE

.281L15 team wOBA
-35 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 8mph out to CF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity45%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO