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CLEVELANDCLE
58-59 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
59-56 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L4 · 4-6 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
77°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.56
IP
139.0
K/9
11.5
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.04
L5 STARTS2.52 ERA · 47% K · 2.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
Anthony Kay
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.01
IP
110.0
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS3.20 ERA · 20.4% K · 8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
24%
23%
18%
17%
14%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

CLE2 · spread

Williams's K-monster edge over a hittable opp

— Kalshi41% book51% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Gavin Williams · Over 7.5 8+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-122 DraftKings55% book71% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 65%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE CWS

Game Markets

CLE @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

21%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

29%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.65 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 5.01, CWS 3.36
  • Gavin Williams (CLE) vs Anthony Kay (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

78%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.8 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against CWS
AK

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.9%OPS-against.691
vs Left-handedK%32.5%OPS-against.622
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.710K%24.6%

ANTHONY KAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.7%OPS-against.833
vs Left-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.549
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.691K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs ANTHONY KAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·CWS 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 5·CWS 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CLE 187 · CWS 140 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-07CLE 8-2 · Blowout
2026-07-05CWS 7-6 · One-run game
2026-07-04CWS 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE57¢ · 57%
CWS47¢ · 47%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
CWS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CWS OFFENSE

.288L15 team wOBA
-28 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 6mph out to LF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity77%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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