MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Chase Burns · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
26%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore WSH by 0.97 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
23%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
WSH SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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