MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Seth Lugo · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CHC @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
KC -1.5
33%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
49%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore KC by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
CHC SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
72%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
KC SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Big OF — triples up, HR down.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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