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BALTIMOREBAL
56-60 · +4 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
58-58 · +2 AL WEST · W3 · 4-6 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
98°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Bradish
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.79
IP
121.0
K/9
8.7
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS4.06 ERA · 18.6% K · 6.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
27%
22%
18%
SinkerSliderCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Jacob deGrom
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.96
IP
113.2
K/9
10.7
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS5.56 ERA · 25.7% K · 8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
36%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Bradish · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-130 FanDuel57% book71% +14pp

Jacob deGrom · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter

-105 Fanatics51% book66% +14pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TEX

Game Markets

BAL @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

39%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore BAL by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 3.70, TEX 4.16
  • Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KB

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against TEX
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

33%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE BRADISH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.730
vs Left-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.712
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%22.0%

JACOB DEGROM SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.686
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.650
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs KYLE BRADISH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs JACOB DEGROM

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·TEX 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·TEX 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%BAL
BAL 58 · TEX 57 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-08TEX 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-04-01BAL 8-3
2026-03-31TEX 8-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL44¢ · 44%
TEX59¢ · 59%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→3.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TEX OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT98° · 8mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
98°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity31%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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