MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Gerrit Cole · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ATL @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
23%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYY by 1.11 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
44%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
NYY SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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