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ATH
45-71 · +4 AL WEST · L9 · 1-9 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
64-51 · +3 AL EAST · W9 · 9-1 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
91°F · 12mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Gage Jump
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
4.59
IP
66.2
K/9
9.9
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.47
L5 STARTS6.61 ERA · 29.9% K · 16.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
25%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballSweeper
Jake Bennett
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
2.90
IP
71.1
K/9
6.3
BB/9
1.6
WHIP
1.01
L5 STARTS2.75 ERA · 15.4% K · 4.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
28%
26%
4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH BOS

Game Markets

ATH @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

34%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.27 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.69, BOS 4.58
  • Gage Jump (ATH) vs Jake Bennett (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GJ

Gage Jump

ATH SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against BOS
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

75%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GAGE JUMP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.2%OPS-against.780
vs Left-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.744
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.775K%21.0%

JAKE BENNETT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%16.5%OPS-against.631
vs Left-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.438
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.708K%25.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs GAGE JUMP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs JAKE BENNETT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 1·BOS 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
94%BOS
ATH 4 · BOS 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-07BOS 13-1 · Blowout
2026-07-31BOS 5-4 · One-run game
2026-07-30BOS 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.261L15 team wOBA
-55 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.345L15 team wOBA
+29 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 12mph out to CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind12 mph out to CF
Humidity48%
Rain2%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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