BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
54-62 · +5 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
62-54 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
92°F · 12mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
José Soriano
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.29
IP
123.0
K/9
9.3
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS3.21 ERA · 22.7% K · 8.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
23%
20%
SinkerCurveball4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Zack Wheeler
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
2.49
IP
105.0
K/9
10.8
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS2.88 ERA · 44.2% K · 3.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
16%
15%
14%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

PHI2 · spread

Wheeler's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart

— Kalshi52% book62% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Zack Wheeler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+125 BetRivers44% book62% +18pp

Zack Wheeler · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-157 BetRivers61% book75% +14pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR PHI

Game Markets

TOR @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

35%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

38%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore TOR by 0.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.33, PHI 3.86
  • José Soriano (TOR) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against PHI
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

37%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JOSÉ SORIANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.548
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.701
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%23.0%

ZACK WHEELER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%32.3%OPS-against.587
vs Left-handedK%30.6%OPS-against.579
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs JOSÉ SORIANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs ZACK WHEELER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 4·PHI 3
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%TOR
TOR 94 · PHI 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-10PHI 7-4
2026-06-09TOR 3-2 · One-run game
2026-06-08PHI 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR35¢ · 35%
PHI69¢ · 69%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 12mph out to CF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind12 mph out to CF
Humidity54%
Rain15%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO