BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
50-66 · +5 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
57-60 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L3 · 2-8 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
77°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
2.88
IP
34.1
K/9
6.3
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.05
L5 STARTS2.15 ERA · 18.3% K · 7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
Carmen Mlodzinski
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.15
IP
94.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS2.73 ERA · 22.2% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
25%
18%
12%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerCurveballSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM PIT

Game Markets

NYM @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

38%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore NYM by 0.25 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.93, PIT 5.18
  • Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against PIT
CM

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.633
vs Left-handedK%12.5%OPS-against.544
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.768K%23.7%

CARMEN MLODZINSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.588
vs Left-handedK%16.7%OPS-against.755
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.716K%23.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs CARMEN MLODZINSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 2·PIT 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYM
NYM 56 · PIT 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-29PIT 4-3 · One-run game
2026-03-28NYM 4-2
2026-03-26NYM 11-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM46¢ · 46%
PIT58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PIT OFFENSE

.261L15 team wOBA
-55 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 5mph out to LF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity84%
Rain20%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO