BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
57-59 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
72-43 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
88°F · 13mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zebby Matthews
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
5.22
IP
81.0
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS7.81 ERA · 20.5% K · 12.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
21%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballCutterChangeupSinker
Shane Drohan
LHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.48
IP
88.0
K/9
9.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS4.19 ERA · 24.4% K · 4.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
21%
20%
14%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderCurveballCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Zebby Matthews · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

-125 Fanatics56% book73% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIN MIL

Game Markets

MIN @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

43%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore MIN by 0.95 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 3.76, MIL 4.71
  • Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Shane Drohan (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZM

Zebby Matthews

MIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against MIL
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

81%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 77% to reach 5+ against MIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZEBBY MATTHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.758
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.827
MIL vs LHP (team)OPS.687K%21.1%

SHANE DROHAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.7%OPS-against.673
vs Left-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.639
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.744K%21.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs ZEBBY MATTHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs SHANE DROHAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 0·MIL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 1·MIL 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%MIL
MIN 39 · MIL 44 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-17MIN 5-4 · One-run game
2026-05-16MIL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-15MIL 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN41¢ · 41%
MIL63¢ · 63%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.275L15 team wOBA
-41 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 13mph out to CF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind13 mph out to CF
Humidity46%
Rain1%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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