Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Merrill Kelly · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAD @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
24%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore ARI by 1.40 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAD SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
60%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
ARI SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 5.2–3.8 · projected total 9.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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