MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Tyler Phillips · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Tyler Phillips · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
42%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore LAA by 0.70 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
10%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
23%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
14%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIA SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Cavernous OF.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.