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HOUSTONHOU
59-57 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@FRI 9:40 PM ETSD HOME PARK
60-56 · +3 NL WEST · W1 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
78°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ronel Blanco
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
7.36
IP
14.2
K/9
9.8
BB/9
4.9
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS8.00 ERA · 25.8% K · 12.9% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Robbie Ray
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.08
IP
122.2
K/9
7.8
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS2.00 ERA · 21.6% K · 12.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU SD

Game Markets

HOU @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

SD -1.5

30%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore SD by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.52, SD 3.75
  • Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs Robbie Ray (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RB

Ronel Blanco

HOU SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against SD
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RONEL BLANCO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.589
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.914
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.671K%21.6%

ROBBIE RAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.691
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs RONEL BLANCO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs ROBBIE RAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 0·SD 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%SD
HOU 21 · SD 28 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-04-20SD 3-2 · One-run game
2025-04-19HOU 3-2 · One-run game
2025-04-19HOU 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU49¢ · 49%
SD55¢ · 55%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+41 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SD OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity69%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO