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DETROITDET
56-59 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 10:15 PM ETSF HOME PARK
48-67 · +4 NL WEST · L2 · 4-6 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
60°F · 12mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Keider Montero
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.17
IP
116.1
K/9
6.3
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.00
L5 STARTS3.38 ERA · 22.8% K · 4.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
15%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderCurveballChangeup
JT Brubaker
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
3.17
IP
54.0
K/9
6.0
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS5.42 ERA · 13.2% K · 5.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
27%
11%
SinkerSliderChangeupCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Keider Montero · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-145 DraftKings59% book79% +20pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET SF

Game Markets

DET @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

SF -1.5

35%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.26 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.13, SF 4.13
  • Keider Montero (DET) vs JT Brubaker (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against SF
JB

JT Brubaker

SF SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

1%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.1 strikeouts
  • 5% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEIDER MONTERO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.587
vs Left-handedK%16.2%OPS-against.622
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.738K%20.1%

JT BRUBAKER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.2%OPS-against.751
vs Left-handedK%15.7%OPS-against.488
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.745K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs KEIDER MONTERO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs JT BRUBAKER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 0·SF 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 0·SF 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SF
DET 14 · SF 15 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-05-28DET 4-3 · One-run game
2025-05-27DET 3-1
2025-05-26DET 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
DET56¢ · 56%
SF49¢ · 49%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
DET -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.359L15 team wOBA
+43 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SF OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT60° · 12mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
60°F
Wind12 mph out to CF
Humidity89%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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