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CLEVELANDCLE
57-59 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 3-7 L10
@FRI 7:40 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
59-55 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 4-6 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
82°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.57
IP
129.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS1.64 ERA · 19% K · 6.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
Noah Schultz
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.82
IP
65.0
K/9
8.0
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS5.92 ERA · 18% K · 5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
22%
20%
9%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE CWS

Game Markets

CLE @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

23%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 5.46, CWS 3.82
  • Parker Messick (CLE) vs Noah Schultz (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against CWS
NS

Noah Schultz

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

22%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.2%OPS-against.585
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.679
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%24.5%

NOAH SCHULTZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.783
vs Left-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.681
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.655K%23.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs NOAH SCHULTZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 0·CWS 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 4·CWS 5
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CLE 186 · CWS 140 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-05CWS 7-6 · One-run game
2026-07-04CWS 3-1
2026-07-03CLE 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE59¢ · 59%
CWS45¢ · 45%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
CWS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CWS OFFENSE

.279L15 team wOBA
-37 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 6mph out to CF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity62%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO