AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs WSH
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Friday, August 7, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 74 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs Washington Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CIN STARTER
Chase Burns
GOOD- 7.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 114
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
WSH STARTER
Andrew Alvarez
AVERAGE- 5.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Andrew Alvarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Chase Burns grades good (Pitching+ 114)
CIN LINEUP
1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
2Sal Stewart (R)hit 69% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3JJ Bleday (L)hit 62% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 58% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Héctor Rodríguezhit 59% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Noelvi Marte (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Matt McLain (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
WSH LINEUP
1CJ Abrams (L)hit 74% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Abimelec Ortizhit 69% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Brady House (R)hit 69% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Daylen Lile (L)hit 67% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Dylan Crews (R)hit 65% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Harry Ford (R)hit 62% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
7Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 59% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8José Tena (L)hit 64% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
9Jacob Young (R)hit 62% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
27%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore WSH by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.84, WSH 3.89
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Andrew Alvarez (WSH)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
23%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
- 88% to reach 5+ against WSH
Andrew Alvarez
WSH SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against CIN
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Brady House
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Abimelec Ortiz
WSH · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Chase Burns
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Harry Ford
WSH · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Héctor Rodríguez
CIN · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andrew Alvarez
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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