BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
67-49 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W4 · 7-3 L10
@FRI 8:10 PM ETKC HOME PARK
48-68 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
84°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Adam Beck K-0.8%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kevin Gausman
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.38
IP
127.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.31 ERA · 22.3% K · 9.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Daniel Lynch IV
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
1.96
IP
46.0
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
0.93
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 5.6% K · 0% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
24%
24%
17%
SinkerSliderChangeup4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS10 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

CHC2 · spread

Gausman has the rotation edge

— Kalshi51% book62% +11pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Alex Bregman · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

-145 Bovada59% book67% +8pp

Nico Hoerner · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-143 Caesars59% book67% +8pp

Alex Bregman · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

+201 DraftKings33% book41% +8pp

Michael Busch · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

-145 Bovada59% book65% +6pp

Seiya Suzuki · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-115 Bovada53% book59% +6pp

Pete Crow-Armstrong · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-108 DraftKings52% book58% +6pp

Carson Kelly · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-164 Caesars62% book68% +6pp

Carson Kelly · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+184 DraftKings35% book41% +6pp

Michael Busch · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

BABIP-buried but the contact is real

+190 DraftKings34% book40% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCubs 51%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC KC

Game Markets

CHC @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

KC -1.5

32%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore KC by 0.33 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.43, KC 4.10
  • Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs Daniel Lynch IV (KC)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against KC
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
TT

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
SM

Starling Marte

KC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.702K%21.1%

DANIEL LYNCH IV SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.672
vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.377
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs DANIEL LYNCH IV

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·KC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 2·KC 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%CHC
CHC 33 · KC 27 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-11CHC 9-8 · Slugfest
2026-02-23CHC 3-2 · One-run game
2025-07-23KC 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC62¢ · 62%
KC41¢ · 41%
Total 9.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→10→9→9.5→9→9.5→9→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

KC OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 6mph out to LF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity55%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BECK
Called K rate-0.8% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr170

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CUBS 51%

Mean score sim 4.4–4.1 · projected total 8.5 runs · built on locked lineups

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