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BALTIMOREBAL
56-59 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 8:15 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
57-58 · +2 AL WEST · W2 · 4-6 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
99°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Baz
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.86
IP
128.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS2.73 ERA · 20.5% K · 5.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterSinkerChangeup
Nathan Eovaldi
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.31
IP
127.1
K/9
9.5
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS5.67 ERA · 28.6% K · 5.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
22%
21%
13%
8%
Split-FingerCurveballCutter4-Seam FastballSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Shane Baz · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-156 DraftKings61% book72% +11pp

Nathan Eovaldi · Over 18.5 19+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

+140 Bovada42% book51% +10pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TEX

Game Markets

BAL @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

40%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore BAL by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 3.92, TEX 4.52
  • Shane Baz (BAL) vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against TEX
NE

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

28%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SHANE BAZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.2%OPS-against.661
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.787
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%22.0%

NATHAN EOVALDI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.721
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.774
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%23.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs SHANE BAZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs NATHAN EOVALDI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·TEX 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%BAL
BAL 58 · TEX 56 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-01BAL 8-3
2026-03-31TEX 8-5
2026-03-30TEX 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL44¢ · 44%
TEX60¢ · 60%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TEX OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA
-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT99° · 9mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
99°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity26%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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