MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Tyler Mahle · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Max Fried · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ATL @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
41%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore ATL by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
NYY SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
44%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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