TORONTOTOR
54-62 · +5 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-06PHI HOME PARK
62-54 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
87°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR PHI

Game Markets

TOR @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

40%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore TOR by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.55, PHI 4.14
  • José Soriano (TOR) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against PHI
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

38%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.693K%23.6%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%18.8%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 4·PHI 3
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%TOR
TOR 94 · PHI 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-10PHI 7-4
2026-06-09TOR 3-2 · One-run game
2026-06-08PHI 5-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR35¢ · 35%
PHI68¢ · 68%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5 ·
PHI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT87° · 7mph out to CF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity67%
Rain7%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PHILLIES 58%

Mean score sim 3.54.1 · projected total 7.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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