MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
TOR2 · spread
Cease's K-monster edge over a hittable opp
TOR4 · spread
Cease's K-monster edge over a hittable opp
TOR3 · spread
Cease's K-monster edge over a hittable opp
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Dylan Cease · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TOR @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
70%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
23%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
17%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
56%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
25%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore CHC by 2.36 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
56%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
38%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
28%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
16%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CHC SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
60%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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