Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Walker Buehler · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Walker Buehler · Under 15 <15 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Walker Buehler · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Walker Buehler · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Luis Rengifo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Fernando Tatis Jr. · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Drake
Xander Bogaerts · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Xander Bogaerts · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Luis Rengifo · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
SD @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
ARI to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
44%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
ARI projects to outscore SD by 0.93 runs across 5,000 trials.
SD SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
13%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ARI SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
15%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ARI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
SD · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
ARI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.
SD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 3.9–4.8 · projected total 8.7 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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