BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
57-59 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@THU 2:10 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
71-43 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
76°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.96
IP
127.1
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS6.69 ERA · 22.7% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
26%
23%
15%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerSplit-Finger
Dustin May
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
4.38
IP
109.0
K/9
8.8
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.28
L5 STARTS2.98 ERA · 25.9% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
22%
19%
18%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSinkerChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIL

Game Markets

PIT @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

36%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.06 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 3.94, MIL 4.12
  • Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Dustin May (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against MIL
DM

Dustin May

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.604
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.761
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.753K%21.2%

DUSTIN MAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.585
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.750
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.769K%23.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs BRAXTON ASHCRAFT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs DUSTIN MAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 1·MIL 2
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
PIT 7·MIL 3
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
PIT 118 · MIL 163 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-05MIL 4-2
2026-08-04MIL 4-2
2026-08-03PIT 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT45¢ · 45%
MIL57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→7→7.5→7→7.5→6.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.259L15 team wOBA
-57 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 6mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity74%
Rain3%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO