NEW YORKNYM
50-66 · +5 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-06PIT HOME PARK
57-60 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L3 · 2-8 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
83°F · 2mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM PIT

Game Markets

NYM @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

62%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

39%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore NYM by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.05, PIT 5.32
  • Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against PIT
CM

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs LHP (team)OPS.692K%25.6%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.683K%22.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 2·PIT 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYM
NYM 56 · PIT 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-29PIT 4-3 · One-run game
2026-03-28NYM 4-2
2026-03-26NYM 11-7 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM44¢ · 44%
PIT58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5 ·
PIT +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PIT OFFENSE

.261L15 team wOBA
-55 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT83° · 2mph out to RF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind2 mph out to RF
Humidity75%
Rain5%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PIRATES 55%

Mean score sim 5.15.3 · projected total 10.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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