BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
49-66 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
57-58 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
83°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Nolan McLean
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.29
IP
125.2
K/9
10.6
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS1.79 ERA · 28% K · 7.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
19%
17%
13%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballCutterChangeup
Foster Griffin
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.06
IP
129.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS3.56 ERA · 14.5% K · 4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
17%
15%
11%
10%
10%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballChangeupSinkerSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM CLE

Game Markets

NYM @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

33%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.06 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.06, CLE 4.01
  • Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Foster Griffin (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 78% to reach 5+ against CLE
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOLAN MCLEAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.549
vs Left-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.701
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.657K%22.9%

FOSTER GRIFFIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.690
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.590
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.679K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs NOLAN MCLEAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs FOSTER GRIFFIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 2·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 2·CLE 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%NYM
NYM 15 · CLE 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-05NYM 6-5 · One-run game
2026-08-04NYM 6-2
2025-08-06CLE 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM51¢ · 51%
CLE52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 8mph out to RF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity63%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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