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AI MODEL READ

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MIN vs KC

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Thursday, August 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
KANSAS CITYKC
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTKC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH84.5
CH86.1
CH85.5
FB93.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

KC to win

43%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

KC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL KC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

KC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Minnesota vs Kansas City Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEKC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

MIN STARTER

Bailey Ober

SHAKY
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 35% · 23% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 16% whiffSlider · 16% · 12% whiff

KC STARTER

Michael Wacha

AVERAGE
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 21% whiffChangeup · 24% · 29% whiffCutter · 15% · 12% whiff

Michael Wacha grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Bailey Ober grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Trevor Larnach (L)hit 70% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Luke Keaschall (R)hit 65% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 64% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 65% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Royce Lewis (R)hit 63% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brooks Lee (S)hit 60% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alan Roden (L)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Victor Caratini (S)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tristan Gray (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 59% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr.hit 72% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 70% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Isaac Collins (S)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Rave (L)hit 62% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Rojas (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kyle Isbelhit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN KC

Game Markets

MIN @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

KC -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.49 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.21, KC 4.28
  • Bailey Ober (MIN) vs Michael Wacha (KC)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against KC
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against MIN
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bailey Ober
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Bailey Ober
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Michael Wacha
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Michael Wacha
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Bailey Ober
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Bailey Ober
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Bailey Ober
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
TG

Tristan Gray

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
AR

Alan Roden

MIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
JR

Josh Rojas

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 29%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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