LOS ANGELESLAD
69-46 · +1 NL WEST · L6 · 2-8 L10
@2026-08-06ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
105°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAD ARI

Game Markets

LAD @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

32%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

25%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore ARI by 1.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 5.11, ARI 3.84
  • Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs Merrill Kelly (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RS

Roki Sasaki

LAD SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against ARI
MK

Merrill Kelly

ARI SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against LAD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.783K%17.0%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

LAD vs RHP (team)OPS.781K%20.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAD 0·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAD 7·ARI 0
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%LAD
LAD 190 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-12AZ 5-3
2026-07-12AZ 9-2 · Blowout
2026-07-11AZ 9-3 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

LAD OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ARI OFFENSE

.340L15 team wOBA
+24 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT105° · 10mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
105°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity25%
Rain2%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DODGERS 59%

Mean score sim 5.13.8 · projected total 8.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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