MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Brandon Young · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
43%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore LAA by 0.71 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
60%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
76%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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