HOUSTONHOU
59-57 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@2026-08-06SD HOME PARK
59-56 · +3 NL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
81°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU SD

Game Markets

HOU @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

SD -1.5

31%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore SD by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.67, SD 4.09
  • Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs Robbie Ray (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RB

Ronel Blanco

HOU SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against SD
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.665K%22.1%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 0·SD 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%SD
HOU 21 · SD 28 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-04-20SD 3-2 · One-run game
2025-04-19HOU 3-2 · One-run game
2025-04-19HOU 6-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU49¢ · 49%
SD55¢ · 55%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5 ·
SD +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+41 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SD OFFENSE

.344L15 team wOBA
+28 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT81° · 9mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity71%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 54%

Mean score sim 4.74.1 · projected total 8.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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