MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ranger Suarez · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Ranger Suarez · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
46%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore CWS by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
BOS SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Doubles factory (Green Monster).
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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