ATLANTAATL
69-45 · +1 NL EAST · W7 · 8-2 L10
@2026-08-06NYY HOME PARK
64-51 · +2 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
88°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL NYY

Game Markets

ATL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

40%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore ATL by 0.53 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.17, NYY 4.71
  • Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs Max Fried (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TM

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against NYY
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.723K%24.6%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.748K%21.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·NYY 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 1·NYY 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
62%NYY
ATL 26 · NYY 42 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-13ATL 7-6 · One-run game
2026-02-26NYY 7-3
2025-07-20NYY 4-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL44¢ · 44%
NYY61¢ · 61%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5 ·
NYY +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

NYY OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT88° · 5mph out to LF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity68%
Rain2%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

YANKEES 57%

Mean score sim 4.24.7 · projected total 8.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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