ATH
45-70 · +4 AL WEST · L8 · 1-9 L10
@2026-08-06BOS HOME PARK
62-51 · +3 AL EAST · W7 · 9-1 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
91°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH BOS

Game Markets

ATH @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

37%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.51 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.16, BOS 4.34
  • Jack Perkins (ATH) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.779K%21.1%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.718K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·BOS 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 1·BOS 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
94%BOS
ATH 4 · BOS 59 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-31BOS 5-4 · One-run game
2026-07-30BOS 4-2
2026-07-29ATH 4-3 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.335L15 team wOBA
+19 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT91° · 8mph out to CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity50%
Rain11%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RED SOX 54%

Mean score sim 4.24.3 · projected total 8.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read