BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
55-60 · +4 NL EAST · L7 · 2-8 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
61-53 · +2 NL EAST · W4 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Irvin
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
5.56
IP
56.2
K/9
9.4
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS6.55 ERA · 21.3% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerCutterSweeper
Andrew Painter
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
6.72
IP
71.0
K/9
7.5
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.61
L5 STARTS10.20 ERA · 18.3% K · 10.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
21%
14%
11%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerSweeperSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH PHI

Game Markets

WSH @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

63%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

38%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.97 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.88, PHI 5.08
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Andrew Painter (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

22%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against PHI
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE IRVIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.800
vs Left-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.693
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%23.3%

ANDREW PAINTER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.7%OPS-against.891
vs Left-handedK%18.7%OPS-against.874
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.760K%20.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs JAKE IRVIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs ANDREW PAINTER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·PHI 2
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
WSH 3·PHI 8
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PHI
WSH 143 · PHI 155 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04PHI 5-0
2026-08-03PHI 6-3
2026-06-25PHI 10-5 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH41¢ · 41%
PHI62¢ · 62%
Total 9.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→9.5→9→8.5→9→8.5→9.5→8.5→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

PHI OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to LF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity82%
Rain22%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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