BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
53-61 · +5 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@WED 2:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
59-56 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 8-2 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
95°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jameson Taillon
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
5.92
IP
76.0
K/9
8.1
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS8.02 ERA · 22.6% K · 9.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
19%
17%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperChangeupCurveballSinker
Hunter Brown
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.42
IP
52.2
K/9
9.4
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.11 ERA · 19.7% K · 14.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR HOU

Game Markets

TOR @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

42%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore TOR by 0.73 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.71, HOU 4.43
  • Jameson Taillon (TOR) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JT

Jameson Taillon

TOR SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against HOU
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAMESON TAILLON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.801
vs Left-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.924
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%21.7%

HUNTER BROWN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.558
vs Left-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.719
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%18.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs JAMESON TAILLON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs HUNTER BROWN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 1·HOU 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 2·HOU 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%HOU
TOR 49 · HOU 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-05HOU 7-2
2026-08-04TOR 3-1
2026-06-24HOU 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR41¢ · 41%
HOU62¢ · 62%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

HOU OFFENSE

.354L15 team wOBA
+38 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT95° · 5mph out to RF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
95°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity46%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO