TORONTOTOR
54-61 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-05CHC HOME PARK
66-49 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 7-3 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
77°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
1-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 73%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR CHC

Game Markets

TOR @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

73%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

22%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

15%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore CHC by 2.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 5.71, CHC 3.12
  • Dylan Cease (TOR) vs David Peterson (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

59%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.2 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against CHC
DP

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

89%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

85%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

76%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.804K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%18.8%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·CHC 0
1-game set · gm 1 of 1
2026 SEASON
TOR 1·CHC 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CHC
TOR 10 · CHC 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-21CHC 0-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-06-20TOR 8-6
2026-06-19CHC 16-2 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR54¢ · 54%
CHC50¢ · 50%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5 ·
CHC +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CHC OFFENSE

.338L15 team wOBA
+22 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT77° · 6mph out to CF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity88%
Rain25%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BLUE JAYS 73%

Mean score sim 5.73.1 · projected total 8.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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